Tuesday, October 26, 2010

SVNT taken to the cleaners! Overdone or time to place a small long position?

I agree with most analysts on the street that the selling in SVNT was overdone to say the least! The stock closed down 44% on news that the Company was not able to secure a buyer. Now call me crazy, but haircuts like this don't take place in the biotech world if a Company isn't able to secure a buyout based on an APPROVED drug with very large future cash flow potential. Yes ladies and gentlemen, they have an approved drug and even though they did not get bought for a price tag many on the street were anticipating at north of $26, todays price action changes many things. For one, the stock is definitely something one can now be bullish on purely from a valuation standpoint at $12/share instead of $22 (where it was roughly trading at before the announcement today). Second, they will now likely market the drug themselves which will probably be discussed at an 830AM conference call tomorrow and could include a share offering. There's a few ways to make a bullish play on this stock. One can be long by selling puts and/or just buying upside calls/call spreads from the proceeds coming from selling the puts.

1- The December $12 put is yielding around $1.50 meaning u can pick up a 10% premium right off the bat if the stock were to stay in this range or tread higher (which is what I think will likely happen). If it were to close below $12 at Dec expiration, you would be forced to purchase the stock for $12 and pocket the $1.50 premium which isn't such a bad deal!

2- I would use the $1.50 premium and purchase a Dec 14/17 call spread which currently costs just $0.54 for $3 of potential upside if SVNT were to close above $17/share at Dec expiration. So basically I just used $0.54 of the $1.50 or so I picked up from my earlier trade and pocketed ~$1 NET NET for now if nothing really happened between now and Dec expiration. However, like i mentioned earlier, I think the stock will move higher once we get clarity on the Company's next steps so be prepared to potentially make a killing on this trade!

*** Remember the conference call is 830 AM tomorrow. Details: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Savient-Pharmaceuticals-to-prnews-441253181.html?x=0&.v=1

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