Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Nice reversal in Amazon. Options looking hot

Hi everyone. If you all followed the market today, you all saw the reversal in Amazon stock. Despite the Dow being down 130 pts at one time, Amazon held pretty well. Not only, did it hold well, the stock closed up 0.8% on a down day. This is pretty bullish. Alot of activity on the call side today. I saw people snatching up the May 220 strike relatively early in the day which raised my suspicions that the stock might reverse. Currently, the call strike is only trading at $0.45. I expect this to be an easy double or triple if the stock was to move higher over the next few days. If the stock were to hit $210 over the next few trading days, this would easily achieve this objective. I think it's a fairly cheap trade and one worth making :). Seems like some of the Options guys buying up this strike believe Amazon to break out much higher than its currently trading within a very short period of time.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

SVNT taken to the cleaners! Overdone or time to place a small long position?

I agree with most analysts on the street that the selling in SVNT was overdone to say the least! The stock closed down 44% on news that the Company was not able to secure a buyer. Now call me crazy, but haircuts like this don't take place in the biotech world if a Company isn't able to secure a buyout based on an APPROVED drug with very large future cash flow potential. Yes ladies and gentlemen, they have an approved drug and even though they did not get bought for a price tag many on the street were anticipating at north of $26, todays price action changes many things. For one, the stock is definitely something one can now be bullish on purely from a valuation standpoint at $12/share instead of $22 (where it was roughly trading at before the announcement today). Second, they will now likely market the drug themselves which will probably be discussed at an 830AM conference call tomorrow and could include a share offering. There's a few ways to make a bullish play on this stock. One can be long by selling puts and/or just buying upside calls/call spreads from the proceeds coming from selling the puts.

1- The December $12 put is yielding around $1.50 meaning u can pick up a 10% premium right off the bat if the stock were to stay in this range or tread higher (which is what I think will likely happen). If it were to close below $12 at Dec expiration, you would be forced to purchase the stock for $12 and pocket the $1.50 premium which isn't such a bad deal!

2- I would use the $1.50 premium and purchase a Dec 14/17 call spread which currently costs just $0.54 for $3 of potential upside if SVNT were to close above $17/share at Dec expiration. So basically I just used $0.54 of the $1.50 or so I picked up from my earlier trade and pocketed ~$1 NET NET for now if nothing really happened between now and Dec expiration. However, like i mentioned earlier, I think the stock will move higher once we get clarity on the Company's next steps so be prepared to potentially make a killing on this trade!

*** Remember the conference call is 830 AM tomorrow. Details: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Savient-Pharmaceuticals-to-prnews-441253181.html?x=0&.v=1

Monday, October 25, 2010

Prepare for the Rally...long tech!

As futures point to a higher open today, it seems like once should continue to invest names that have been working. The tech sector has shown amazing strength and in situations where the QQQQ's are up significantly pre-mkt, how can I resist purchasing a tech-leader at the open. I actually like AMZN. The Company reported last Friday and despite the choppy action in the market, the stock closed higher on the back of some pretty amazing growth. What should we look at? I think there's a few different ways to get into this name. The way I'd like to play this would be to purchase upside calls on the weeklies expiring this week. Take a look at the $175 strike calls trading at just around $1. If the stock was to open at or near this, we could purchase 10 contracts for just $1k giving us upside on the stock above $176 at expiration. We probably don't even need to wait that long. If the market pushes higher today and the stock closes in the 173-174 range, I don't see any reason why these calls would not double.

Monday, October 18, 2010

BIDU reporting this week 10/21...whats the trade??? Weekly Call Options!!!

I've been watching the weekly calls on BIDU today and the 115 strike looks particularly interesting. It's up above 80% from Fridays close which is spectacular! I'd buy them for $1.80 and hold on to them for the next day or so. If the stock touches $107-$108, They will likely double again and I would take my initial investment off of the table and let the rest ride until they report. This could set up nicely but be careful as the weeklies expire this week! However, its a cheap way to play the earnings this week which have resulted in some 10% plus moves to the upside.

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Apple earnings on Deck tomorrow....Net Long options position with downside protection!

As you all probably know by now, Apple is set to report their earnings after the bell tomorrow. Most on the street expect extremely strong earnings but thats not the real question. The stock has gained over 50% this year and the stakes couldn't be higher tomorrow. Not only does Apple have to beat expectations, but they have to beat them across all categories for the street to justify another lift in share price. Personally I think that apple shares will continue the rise and may even touch $330-$335/share after hours. However, I am definitely recommending protecting your net-long position against any selling of the stock.

I am particularly interested in the 330/340 November Call spread costing us close to $2.6. This means that if apple was to close above $340 at November expiration, we would profit almost $7.90 from this trade. Who doesn't love 3x plus trades?!! But thats not all. I am tempted to purchase some downside puts to participate (and protect our call-spread) by purchasing downside puts on the weeklies at the $290 strike just costing $2.09. If the stock were to collapse on back of some unexpected news, we would stand to make a killing! Do I expect that to happen? Probably not. However, whats a few bucks to participate on any downside action in the stock :).

Friday, October 15, 2010

Long Google!!!!!

October, Nov Calls should be very active today on back of the massive rally in Google shares after the reported yesterday after the close. I'm particularly interested in the Oct 600 strike and the November 630 strike.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Keep the Casino Trade On!

The Casinos continue to be on fire with LVS, WYNN and MGM leading the charge. I continue to be a firm advocate of LVS and WYNN from a bullish perspective. Charts show that they still have plenty of upside potential remaining. Gaming revenues in Macau continue to astonish investors. The call options on both stocks show alot of bullishness. I like the LVS $45 call options trading at $2.13 and the WYNN Nov 120 calls going for just $0.70. I believe 100% moves to the upside in call option pricing for both names is still very possible.